Guide to Oakland's April 2025 Special Election

I.e. how do you vote when the Town is headed to bankruptcy and our former mayor to jail?

Punit Shah

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This election is about cutting through corruption to navigate Oakland’s budget crisis. Who’s going to make the right tradeoffs?

This special election was triggered by former (and now indicted) Mayor Shang Thao’s recall and a separate open seat on the City Council.

As usual, Bay Area elections are 50% hot goss, 50% important policy. There’s so many juicy tidbits (in particular, the map of which politician is dating which person who has a restraining order against which other power player)... but on policy, this election is about continuing to root our corrupt, special interests, solving Oakland’s budget crisis, and doing all that while keeping Oakland safe and open for business.

Key thoughts underlying my recommendations:

Oakland will likely declare bankruptcy in the next year. Who has the expertise to run from day 1 to maybe avoid it and can navigate the tradeoffs any path will entail?

Related: Who is likely to (finally!) listen to what’s good for all Oakland residents, not the special or corrupt interests who got them into office, be it the recycling company, the union pushing for a sweetheart pension deal, or their own desire to grandstand while harming the Town?

Why trust this guide?

This guide is based on my policy-over-rhetoric lens focused on what actually works. When everything is Democrat vs Democrat, friends tell me they feel lost on how to vote to improve the region we love.

My experience: Over a decade in the Bay working in/following policy

I first moved to the Bay Area in 2011 and have followed local issues extensively since. I’ve met elected officials, community groups, and activists across the spectrum. I’ve gathered ground data, e.g. sitting through trials and criminal preliminary hearings, to learn more about how the courts actually function.

I’ve worked in-and-out of urban technology since 2014. I’ve met with numerous government officials, community groups, and others in cities across the world to deeply understand these issues and how governments really work.

I don’t owe political favors. While elected and political organizations understandably adapt their views to enable horse trading, I’m not in politics and have no backs to scratch or donors to satisfy.

My guides usually cover

[live] Oakland⁠

[live] San Francisco⁠

[live] State-wide only⁠

. Keeping them linked here for SEO :)

See a longer take on my principles at

Key Policy Beliefs⁠

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Recommendations

Mayor: #1 Loren Taylor

This is a race between Loren Taylor and Barbara Lee. There are others running; they’re not viable.

Taylor is a former City Council member who was just a few hundred votes from being mayor last cycle. I supported him then. I still feel he’s the right candidate. Here’s why:

He’s not tied to key special interests and instead looks to hard data over false hopes. He’s in particular not tied to labor and the corrupt apparatus around ex-Mayor Thao. They crippled the budget over decades, including pre-Thao, through giveaways such as

sweetheart deals on pensions⁠

. Taylor is more likely to restructure our debt to benefit Oaklanders, not his donors by being on their side in negotiations.

He’s more outcome — not soundbite — oriented on public safety, housing, and other key issues. For example, instead of rhetoric like “defund the police,” he’s more willing to find the right mix of police and alternatives (e.g. MARCO, Operation Ceasefire) to reduce violent crime.

He’s experienced, in Oakland. He’s worked in our City Council recently. He’s remained connected to the city’s specific issues. He’ll run from Day 1.

What about Lee? She’s been our US Congresswoman since 1998. She famously voted against the Afghanistan war post-9/11, which if you read her recent mailers seems to be the key achievement she still touts. She has high name recognition, and no matter what she’s done/not in Washington, there are plenty of people with warm feelings for her. In a budget crisis, getting people to the table with an existing relationship will be important — and not something to be discounted.

Lee may be proud of her Afghanistan vote in 2001, but we need someone who can serve Oakland in 2025. Another near-octogenarian with no local government experience who’s been a career DC legislator isn’t going to be able to get running on Day 1. She supported Shang Thao through the recall and took money from the Duongs’ recycling apparatus, showing at best bad judgment. She has long been supported by the labor groups that are pushing to do whatever it takes to protect those pension deals. And it shows: her plans for balancing the budget are thin, but representative of her understanding of the city’s issues today. Lee’s Congressional predecessor Ron Dellums also ran for Oakland mayor. He showed being a popular Congressperson

doesn’t translate into being an effective mayor⁠

Lee will be more of today’s mess. Taylor is an opportunity for an alternative.

City Council, District 2: #1 Charlene Wang, #2 Harold Lowe, #3 Kenneth Anderson, #4 Kanitha Matoury (rank choice)

This district covers areas to the east, south, and southwest of Lake Merritt.

Wang was my top pick for the at-large seat last November. For the same reasons, I think she’ll do well representing D2. She’s a policy wonk and has a sensible approach to public safety, housing, etc. She’s not tied to the special interests of Shang Thao / Karen Bas. I’ve met her and found her to be sharp, thoughtful, and not someone who thinks snappy soundbites equals winning, unlike too many other elected leaders.

Anderson and Lowe have deep Oakland roots. I think to varying degrees they’ll be willing to hold themselves against the varying competing interests as we settle the budget (unlike Kara Murray-Badal, the candidate endorsed by the politicians/organizations most tied to the status quo). They seem like the best alternatives.

Measure A, New Sales Tax: No

I avoid being cynical. I try to assume good intent and that people in public office are trying their best in hard circumstances, which is usually true. I’m not sure the City Council could have made it any harder for me this cycle.

Here’s the proposal: increase Oakland’s sales tax by 0.5% — i.e. for every $1000, you pay $5 more — generating an est. $30M revenue annually This would bring our rate to 10.75%,

tied for highest in the state⁠

. As context, San Francisco’s is 8.625%, over 2% lower. This is at least the fourth straight election with proposals to tax Oaklanders on it.

Here’s the “pro” argument: We the City Council are doing everything we can to cut costs, but need more revenue to prevent harmful cuts to city services when we pass the budget by June 30. This tax will be for just 10 years to help solve today’s crisis.

Here’s how I see it:

It doesn’t solve the budget crisis: revenue won’t hit until after our June 30 fiscal cliff. You don’t immediately get $30M revenue on day 1, so we’ll still have to make hard cuts. It’s also a small fraction of the overall deficit.

There’s limited oversight: Council put this on the ballot but intentionally refused to put any oversight on it even though

there was a proposal ready-to-go⁠

. Given Council’s track record on not funding oversight — but funding special interests — it’s shortsighted at best, cynical and disingenuous at worst.

It’s not temporary and incents bloat: It’s technically for just 10 years, but it’ll incent what we’ve seen for the last few decades: fiscal irresponsibility driven by giveaways to the highest bidders. The argument in a decade will be “but if we lose this, look at all the service cuts we’ll have to make!” The cycle repeats.

Others do better with less, without harming small businesses and our poorest: Clearly, other (more expensive!) cities get by with less. We can too — and shouldn’t drive away customers who want to come to Oakland. Sales taxes are regressive and will hit lower income neighbors the worst.

It rewards past incompetence: Fun little fact: Half of the first year revenue from this tax could have been covered by the retail theft grant we qualified for but

Thao missed the deadline for⁠

. You could recover 10% of the revenue if you don’t pay corrupt recycling companies

more than the city's own lawyers negotiated in settlements⁠

FYI, both major mayoral candidates support this measure. I assume it’s because if they win it’ll make their life easier, avoiding politically costly decisions. That’s no reason to support this measure.